What is Wage Growth?

Understanding Wage Growth

Wage growth measures how quickly workers' pay is rising. It influences household spending, inflation, and central bank decisions—making it a crucial variable for currency valuations.

Key Indicators

Monitor average hourly earnings, employment cost index (ECI), and negotiated wage settlements. Rising wages often precede core-inflation pressures, prompting rate hikes that can strengthen a currency.

Trading Considerations

Unexpected wage surprises in employment reports frequently move FX markets. Incorporate wage trends into macro models, especially for economies where consumption drives GDP.

Practical Playbook

• Define context on higher timeframes, then execute on intraday charts.
• Wait for confirmation (acceptance, momentum, or confluence) before entry.
• Size positions conservatively and place stops at clear invalidation levels.
• Adapt to session dynamics; conditions shift between Asia, London, and New York.

Common Pitfalls

• Forcing trades without alignment across timeframe, structure, and catalyst.
• Ignoring spreads/slippage during news or thin liquidity.
• Moving stops or adding to losers instead of honoring the plan.

Illustrative Example

Build a simple playbook: identify bias, mark key zones/levels, define triggers and invalidation, and pre‑set targets for 2–3R. Journal results by session and setup to refine rules. Over time, consistency—not prediction—drives outcomes.

Practical Playbook

• Define context on higher timeframes, then execute on intraday charts.
• Wait for confirmation (acceptance, momentum, or confluence) before entry.
• Size positions conservatively and place stops at clear invalidation levels.
• Adapt to session dynamics; conditions shift between Asia, London, and New York.

Common Pitfalls

• Forcing trades without alignment across timeframe, structure, and catalyst.
• Ignoring spreads/slippage during news or thin liquidity.
• Moving stops or adding to losers instead of honoring the plan.

Illustrative Example

Build a simple playbook: identify bias, mark key zones/levels, define triggers and invalidation, and pre‑set targets for 2–3R. Journal results by session and setup to refine rules. Over time, consistency—not prediction—drives outcomes.