The market had a clear higher low structure building up to the top at 109.551 and started putting in lower highs. The 102.981 main higher low finally broke, to print a new low at 101.06 and price came back to retest this broken low area. I waited for a rejection on the intraday chart. That was my entry. Trade levels on the chart.
Reasons:
Lower high at 106.595
Break of main higher low at 102.981, structure now bearish.
Retest of the broken low and rejection, classic short trigger.
US and Iran have reportedly reached a final draft ceasefire mediated by Pakistan.
The draft includes immediate ceasefire, guaranteed navigation through the Strait of Hormuz under joint monitoring, and gradual sanctions relief on Iran. When the Strait of Hormuz is guaranteed open, the supply disruption fear that was pricing unwind.
So the chart and the news point the same direction. I target at 96.00
Lets see how the trade setup progress. Always remember that even the best setups fail sometimes, a ceasefire that falls apart in the 7 day negotiation window could spike oil right back.
Trade Timeline
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